Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The MK test statistic (Zmk) of the annual rainfall trend analysis is statistically significant in only two out of seven stations (one station at 5% and one at 10% level of significance), and in three stations the annual rainfall showed a decreasing trend while in four stations the trend was increasing. Such studies ignored the localized trends of rainfall and temperature, particularly in most highlands of Ethiopia. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. 5.3.1. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The magnitude of the significantly increasing trend of mean annual rainfall of 0.28 mm/year and 1.07% (DB station) was recorded, whereas a significantly decreasing trend of mean annual rainfall was observed with the values of 8.62 mm/year and 27.88% (HG station). Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). The average rainfallvaries from less than 500 to 1,000 mm.iv. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % of annual and seasonal rainfall (19802014). However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. The capital of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, is located at an elevation of 7,726 feet, and as such its climate remains relatively cool throughout the year. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. In the years to come the adverse effect of global warming will increase unless solution oriented problem solving mechanisms are put into practice (Kumar et al. Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. . The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. About 60 percent of the rain is in autumn and 40 percent in spring. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. The rainfall and temperature daily records over 35 years (19802014) for the Beressa watershed were obtained from the National Meteorological Service Agency of Ethiopia from seven stations; hence rainfall on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis were derived from the daily data. In the years between 1981 and 1984, the annual total rainfall was far lower than the mean long-term rainfall. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were . According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. This report compiles information from a wide variety of data and information sources. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. Annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature are influenced by the variability of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which causes interannual rainfall variability over Ethiopia. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. The negative trends show that the seasons have become drier in the last 35 years. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded fromNovember to February.It is not easy to observe distinct variation in temperature between seasons as the sun is alwayshigh in the tropics. This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. All the given crops show considerably high correlation with belg rainfall. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. Additionally, studies of rainfall and temperature variations in larger areas would in general be of little use for local level agricultural production (Gebre et al. ; ed. Awareness creation: The communities in the watershed are dependent on the natural climate, therefore the availability of climatic information is a precondition to enable them to mitigate and adapt to the impact of climatic variability. Data and Methods 3.1. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. Discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. This study assessed the historical (1983-2005) and future (2026-2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). 2013; Irannezhad et al. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. Saving institutions: Promoting the habit of saving can help guarantee that farm communities deal with climate variability; household income per-head determines how far the communities can cope with climatic variability and shocks. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Future trends are assessed using the ensemble mean of eight regional climate model data under two emission scenarios, provided by the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. 3.1 Spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation exerts damaging impacts on both society and ecosystems. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. 2015 . Therefore, there is a need for community-based coping and adaptation strategies such as adopting soil, water conservation and water harvesting strategies; and increasing diversified crops, high value and market oriented crops, fast growing crops and climate resistant crops, which are less susceptible to future climatic variability. In view of this, the incidence of food shortage is a common occurrence. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? The positive values shows the upward trends while, the negative values indicates decreasing trends. In the last few decades, incidence of climate change related hazards have manifested in the form of recurrent drought, erosive rain, rainfall variability and flood events (Kenabatho et al. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. This study assessed the historical (19832005) and future (20262100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). In the observations, warm spell duration, warm day-, and warm night frequencies exhibit statistically significant positive trends. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Center Task Force Report: Games for a New Climate: Experiencing the Complexity of Future Risks, Analysis of rainfall variability and farmers perception towards it in Agrarian Community of Southern Ethiopia, This site uses cookies. 2013; Pachauri et al. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. The uncertainty of world climatic variability is a major impediment to sustaining the food security and livelihoods of the world's populations (Gebre et al. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. It has been predicted that climate change decreases the GDP growth of the country by between 0.5 and 2.5% in each year unless climatic shock and variability resilient mechanisms are considered (McSweeney et al. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. In general, these future projections point towards increases in summertime temperatures and modifications in precipitation across both regions. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. 2017a, 2017b). Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. The Geologic Processes: Endogenic and Exogenic Forces, 2.3. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. In a study by Mekasha et al. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. 2011; Funk et al. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. 2016). The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. This Observed Data The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. The mean annual temperature varied between 13 and 15.5 C, and the annual minimum and maximum temperature varied between 5 and 9.5 C, respectively. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. These are: i. The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. ; Bega: winter for most developing countries of the economy has manifested as variable. 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